There have been a lot of discussions around the new mortgage rules and I have had a few clients ask about what that means for them. Since stress testing on mortgages began last year, the biggest change this January will be for people who are putting more than a 20% down payment on their new homes.

What do the new mortgage rules mean for them?
The impact of the new mortgage rules as of January 1, 2018, will require all uninsured mortgage borrowers to qualify for their mortgage using the Bank of Canada five-year benchmark rate, or at their current rate plus an addition 2%. (Uninsured mortgage borrowers are typically those who purchase a new home with more than 20% of its total value.)The government is stress testing our current finances as a way to help prevent any unnecessary financial risks from Canadians. This change was primarily intended to help curb the housing bubbles in Toronto and Vancouver, but will affect homebuyers across the country, including those looking to qualify for a mortgage in Edmonton.

Why are new mortgage rules being introduced?
The revisions have been put in place to help ensure that uninsured borrowers can cope with higher interest rates. In the past, when there was a change in the market (increased interest rates, low employment, reduction in house values, etc.), Canadians were finding it difficult to keep up with their mortgage payments. In the past year, we have seen an increase in interest rates which has caused some concern with the government. The overnight rate – the interest rate set as the Bank’s policy interest rate, which influences mortgage rates, sat at a historically low 0.5% earlier in 2017  – has been raised 75 basis points by the Bank of Canada since July. A third rate hike took place this month. Although an unexpected surprise for many, the hike in interest rates is essentially providing Canadians with an opportunity to act more financially responsible. This new regulation will help make it more difficult for Canadians who were borrowing against the value of their homes to make new financial investments, thereby reducing the country’s financial risk.

Despite the changes to the new mortgage rules, people will still be looking to buy new homes with mortgages, but will be shifting their outlook on what they need. In Edmonton, where housing price are still very affordable, the shift may not be as difficult as in other markets. In a recent interview with BuzzBuzzNews, real estate broker and TalkCondo operator, Roy Bhandari said, “The new rules won’t slow sales. Instead, buyers will look at more affordable options on the market.”

If you have any questions, contact your trusted Dominion Lending Centres mortgage broker.

MAX OMAR

Dominion Lending Centres – Accredited Mortgage Professional
Max is part of DLC Capital Region based in Edmonton, AB.

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The January 1 implementation of the new OSFI B-20 regulations requires that uninsured mortgage borrowers be stress-tested at a mortgage rate 200 basis points above the contract rate at federally regulated financial institutions. It is no surprise that home sales rose in advance of the new ruling in November and December. Even so, activity remains below peak levels earlier in 2017 and prices continued to fall in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and in Oakville-Milton, Ontario for the eighth consecutive month. Prices also fell last month in Calgary, Regina, and Saskatoon–cities that have suffered the effects of the plunge in oil and other commodity prices beginning in mid-2014.

Mortgage Rates Are Rising

Ever since the release of exceptionally strong yearend employment data for Canada on January 5th, there has been a widespread expectation that the Bank of Canada would hike the target overnight interest rate by 25 basis points this Wednesday, taking it to 1.25 percent. Indeed, market rates have already risen in response to this expectation. The Royal Bank was the first to hike its posted 5-year fixed mortgage rate to 5.14 percent last Thursday, up from 4.99 percent. Other banks quickly followed suit.

It used to be that a hike in the posted rate was of little consequence because borrowers’ contract rates were typically much lower. However, government regulations put in place in October 2016 now force borrowers with less than a 20 percent down payment to qualify at the posted rate. And the new OSFI regulations effective this year now require even those with more than a 20 percent down payment to qualify at a rate 200 basis points above the contract mortgage rate at federally regulated financial institutions.

It has been four years since the posted five-year fixed mortgage rate exceeded 5 percent. And it has been nearly a decade since homebuyers had to qualify at contract mortgage rates that high–when government stress-testing rules didn’t exist. A decade ago, house prices in Canada’s major cities were substantially lower. Indeed, as the table below shows, house prices in the Greater Vancouver Region, Fraser Valley and the Lower Mainland of British Columbia have increased by nearly 80 percent in just the past five years. In the GTA, home prices are up over 60 percent over the same period. These price gains dwarf income increases by an enormous margin. So clearly, housing affordability has plummeted and the combination of tightening regulations and rising interest rates will no doubt dampen housing activity.

This is one factor that could weaken the case for a Bank of Canada rate hike this week. Another is the potential failure of NAFTA negotiations–a threat to three-quarters of Canada’s exports. Additionally, inflation remains low and wage gains–though rising–are still quite moderate.

Hence the case for a Bank of Canada rate hike this week is not incontestable.

U.S. market interest rates have risen significantly this year, and many bond traders are now forecasting the end of the secular bull market in bonds as the U.S. economy approaches full-employment and fiscal stimulus (the recent tax cuts) will boost the federal budget deficit.

December Home Sales Rise

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) reported today that national home sales jumped 4.5% from November to December–their fifth consecutive monthly increase. Activity in December was up in close to 60% of all local markets, led by the GTA, Edmonton, Calgary, the Fraser Valley, Vancouver Island, Hamilton-Burlington and Winnipeg.

While activity remained below year-ago levels in the GTA, the decline there was more than offset by some sizeable y-o-y gains in the Lower Mainland of British Columbia, Vancouver Island, Calgary, Edmonton, Ottawa and Montreal.

New Listings Shot Up

Many sellers decided to list their properties ahead of the mortgage rule changes. The number of newly listed homes rose 3.3% in December. As in November, the national increase was overwhelmingly due to rising new supply in the GTA. New listings and sales have both trended higher since August. As a result, the national sales-to-new listings ratio has remained in the mid-to-high 50% range since then.

A national sales-to-new listings ratio of between 40% and 60% is consistent with a balanced national housing market, with readings below and above this range indicating buyers’ and sellers’ markets respectively. That said, the balanced range can vary among local markets.

Considering the degree and duration that the current market balance is above or below its long-term average is a more sophisticated way of gauging whether local housing market conditions favour buyers or sellers. Market balance measures that are within one standard deviation of the long-term average are generally consistent with balanced market conditions. Based on a comparison of the sales-to-new listings ratio with its long-term average, more than two-thirds of all local markets were in balanced-market territory in December 2017.

The number of months of inventory is another important measure of the balance between housing supply and demand. It represents how long it would take to liquidate current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.

There were 4.5 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of December 2017. The measure has been moving steadily lower in tandem with the monthly rise in sales that began last summer.

The number of months of inventory in the Greater Golden Horseshoe region (2.1 months) was up sharply from the all-time low reached in March 2017 (0.9 months). Even so, the December reading stood a full month below the regions’ long-term average (3.1 months) and reached a seven-month low.

Price Pressures Eased

The Aggregate Composite MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) rose by 9.1% year-over-year (y-o-y) in December 2017 marking a further deceleration in y-o-y gains that began in the spring of last year and the smallest increase since February 2016. The slowdown in price gains mainly reflects softening price trends in the Greater Golden Horseshoe housing markets tracked by the index, particularly for single-family homes. On an aggregate basis, only single-family price increases slowed on a y-o-y basis. By comparison, y-o-y price gains picked up for townhouse/row and apartment units.
Apartment units again posted the most substantial y-o-y price gains in December (+20.5%), followed by townhouse/row units (+13%), one-storey single family homes (+5.5%), and two-storey single family homes (+4.5%).

DR. SHERRY COOPER
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
Sherry is an award-winning authority on finance and economics with over 30 years of bringing economic insights and clarity to Canadians.

Ask any mortgage broker and they can tell you that there are a handful of misconceptions that the public has about working with a mortgage broker. From questioning their credentials (we all are regulated and licensed with in our own province, and are constantly re-educating ourselves) to assuming that the broker does not have access to the same rate as the banks (we do in fact—plus access to even more lending options) mortgage brokers have heard it all!

With the recent changes to the B-20 guidelines taking full effect as of January 1, 2018 the mortgage landscape is changing and we firmly believe in keeping our clients educated and informed. With these changes, there have been a number of misconceptions that have come to light regarding mortgage professionals and their “limitations” and we felt it was time to address them:

Myth 1: Independent Broker’s don’t have access to the rates the banks do.

Fact: Not true. Brokers have access to MORE rates and lenders than the bank. The bank brokers only have access to their rates-no other ones. A mortgage professional has access to:

• Tier 1 banks in Canada
• Credit Unions
• Monoline Lenders
• Alternative Lenders
• Private Lenders

This extensive network of lender options allows brokers to ensure that you are not only getting the sharpest rate, but that the mortgage product is also aligned with the client’s needs.

Myth 2: The consumer has to negotiate a rate with a lender directly.

Fact: Not true at all! Your mortgage professional will shop the market to find the best overall cost of borrowing for the client. Broker’s will look at all angles of the product to ensure that the client is getting one that will suit their unique and specific needs. Not once will the client be expected to shop their mortgage around or to speak to the lender. This is different from the bank where you are limited to only their rates and are left to negotiate with the bank’s broker—who is paid by the bank! We don’t know about you, but we would much rather have a broker negotiate on our behalf. Plus, they are FREE to use (see myth #6)

Myth 3: A Broker’s goal is to move the mortgage on each renewal.

Fact: A Mortgage Broker’s goal is to present multiple options to consumers so they can secure the optimal product for their specific and unique needs. This entails the broker looking at more than just the rate. A broker will look at:
• Prepayment options
• Costs of borrowing
• Portability
• Penalty to break
• Mortgage charges

And more. If the Broker determines that the current lender is the most ideal for their client at the time of renewal, then they will advise them to remain with that lender. The end goal of renewal is simple: provide clients the best ongoing, current advice at the time of origination and at the time of renewal

Myth 4: The broker receives a trailer fee if the client remains with the same lender at renewal.

Fact: This is on a case-to-case basis. At times, there is a small fee given to the broker if a client opts to renew with their current lender. This allows for accountability between the lender, broker, and customer in most cases. However, this is not always the case and the details of each renewal will vary.

Myth 5: If a Broker moves a mortgage to a new lender upon time of renewal then the full mortgage commission is received by the broker, allowing the broker to obtain “passive income” by constantly switching clients over.

Fact: Let’s clarify: If a client chooses to move their mortgage at renewal after a broker presents them with the best options, then it is in fact a new deal. By being a new deal, this means that the broker has all the work associated with any new file at that time. It is the equivalent of a brand-new mortgage and the broker will have to do the correct steps and work associated with it.

A second point of clarification-although the broker will earn income on this switch, the income (in most cases) is paid by the financial institution receiving the mortgage, NOT the client.

Myth 6: It costs a client more to renew with a mortgage broker.

Fact: Completely false. Clients SAVE MONEY when they work with a mortgage broker at . A broker has access to a variety of lenders and can offer discounts that the bank can’t. Additionally, most mortgage brokers offer continuous advice and information to their clients. Working with a broker is not a “one and done” deal as it is a broker’s goal to keep their clients informed, educated, and well-versed as to what is happening in the industry and how it will affect them. When you work with a broker instead of the bank, you not only get the best mortgage for you, but you also have access to a wealth of industry knowledge continuously.

Mortgage Brokers are a dedicated group of individuals who work directly for the client, not the lenders or the bank. Brokers are problem-solvers, advisors and honourable individuals. We work hard to give our clients the best that we can in an industry that constantly is evolving and changing.

We encourage you to reach out to your local Dominion Lending Centres mortgage professional if you have any misconceptions or questions about working with a broker-we are happy to answer them and help you with your mortgage, your renewal, and everything and anything in between.

GEOFF LEE

Dominion Lending Centres – Accredited Mortgage Professional
Geoff is part of DLC GLM Mortgage Group based in Vancouver, BC.

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